Migration Isn’t the Problem – But Our Lack of Strategy Is

Migration is once again back in the headlines and, with an election approaching, it is quickly becoming a political issue.

New Zealand's migration statistics are often misunderstood. Historically, they were based on arrival and departure cards, but today Statistics New Zealand uses a behaviour-based approach. A person is classified as a migrant if they spend 12 months or more in New Zealand (for arrivals), or 12 months or more overseas (for departures), within a 16month period. This means migration numbers measure who actually settles, or leaves, over time and is why short-term visitor numbers are not included.

Current statistics suggest migration has stabilised after the postCOVID surge, when net migration peaked, in 2023, at 135,000 before falling sharply. In the year to March 2026 there were 135,500 migrant arrivals and 111,300 departures, producing a net migration gain of 24,200.

However, this headline figure masks an important shift. The current net gain is increasingly driven by temporary visa holders, particularly international students and work visa holders. International students who, comprised 27,000 of all new arrivals, now make up a significant share of the inflow while contributing an estimated $4.5 billion to the economy in 2025. This highlights that much of today's migration is not permanent.

At the same time, New Zealand continues to lose its own citizens. Annual net outflows of New Zealanders, primarily to Australia, reached a high of 48,000 but have now eased to around 36,500. This points to a structural reality: we are increasingly reliant on incoming migrants simply to offset the loss of New Zealand citizens.

This matters because migration in New Zealand is fundamentally a demographic issue. Like most developed countries, New Zealand has low birth rates and an ageing population. Without sufficient population growth, the working-age population shrinks while the number of retirees increases. The equation is simple: fewer taxpayers supporting more retirees leads to unsustainable fiscal pressure. Migration is therefore not optional, it is essential.

There is also a significant emerging risk. During COVID, more than 200,000 migrants were granted residence under the 2021 Resident Visa programme. Over the next one to two years, many of these migrants will become New Zealand citizens and will then have the right to relocate to Australia. Notably, around 35% of New Zealand citizens who move to Australia were not born here. This raises the prospect of a second wave of outward migration involving people New Zealand has already invested in, and settled here. If even a modest proportion leave, the impact on net migration, labour supply, and the tax base could be significant.

At the same time, much of New Zealand's current net migration is made up of temporary visa holders who may also leave unless they transition to residence and choose to stay. If New Zealand wants to retain its tax-paying population, the focus will need to shift from attracting migrants, to ensuring they also stay!

Migration is certainly not "out of control." Levels have fallen significantly from their peak and are now relatively moderate. The system is also more targeted, focusing on students, skilled workers, and investors. For example, the redesigned Active Investor Plus visa has generated around 730 applications since April 2025, representing over $4 billion in potential investment. This reflects a more deliberate policy approach with fewer migrants overall, but with greater economic value per migrant.

Migration is not the problem. It is part of the solution and needs to be properly understood. It currently masks the loss of New Zealand citizens, is increasingly driven by temporary migrants, and faces emerging structural risks. As the election approaches, the debate should not be about whether migration is too high or too low. The real issue is what kind of population, and economy, New Zealand wants to build over the next 20 years. Without a clear and consistent long-term strategy, migration policy will continue to drift, and the cost will ultimately fall on all New Zealanders.