The importance of immigration to New Zealand

International immigration has been the main driver of New Zealand’s population growth over the last 20 years and, although this has slowed over the last year, positive net migration remains very important for New Zealand’s future well-being.

In the situation where there was no net migration, NZ’s population would peak in the early 2040s and would then begin to decline as deaths outnumber births. This is the same situation facing many western countries, together with aging populations. With the birth rate well below population replacement, the focus is very much on net migration to avoid population stagnation and decline.

The latest Stats NZ report for the year to April 2025 shows a net migration gain of 21,300 people, which is a sharp decline on the peak of 135,500 in the year to October 2023. In the year to April 2025, 145,000 migrants arrived and 123,700 departed New Zealand, including a net loss of 45,600 New Zealand citizens. In the 3 years to April 2025 some 125,000 more NZ citizens left the country long term, than arrived back.

For April 2025 there were 9,329 migrant arrivals and 9,203 departures giving a net gain of just 125 people for the month. Apart from the Covid years this was the lowest net gain since 2013. This is a continuation of the downward trend over the last year and there is a reasonable likelihood that New Zealand will soon experience some months with negative net migration. The main arrivals in April (excluding NZers and Australians) were people on work visas (2,134), visitor visas (2,061), student visas (1,823), and resident visas (1,355).

The main source countries of new migrants remain India, China, Philippines, Sri Lanka, UK, and Australia. Interestingly the main source countries for migration into Australia are UK, India, China, and New Zealand.

The above NZ Stats statistics relate to people who intend to stay in, or depart from, New Zealand for a period of 12 months or longer and thus do not include short term visitors.

In the next 2-3 years we will see some 200,000 people who obtained NZ residence under the 2021 Resident Visa policy (which transitioned work visa holders to residence during the border lockdown) become eligible for NZ citizenship. Once these people become NZ citizens, they have the right to live in Australia, and it is likely (given the level of citizenship enquiries we receive) that many of these “new citizens” may then consider relocating to Australia.

There are a number of issues which influence the New Zealand migration numbers and trends, and while the main “pull” factors have always been about family and lifestyle, we are now seeing more “push” factors due to the increased uncertainty and conflict throughout the world.

For its part, the Government has recently announced the introduction of the Parent Boost Visa which is a long term (5y + 5y) visitor visa for parents to stay with their families in New Zealand. It is hoped this will help skilled migrants to choose NZ if they know their parents can stay long term, however financial and health insurance requirements may limit the popularity of this visa to around 5,000 to 10,000 people per year. The Government is also adding 10 new trades to the Green List work-to-residence pathway including welders, fitters, and metal fabricators and while this will attract these workers the English language hurdle remains a barrier to residence for many. These visa changes will help, as will the ongoing focus to expedite international student visa processing, as attracting more international students, in the current environment, is probably the most “can-do” option to support net positive migration, and these students also present as desirable long-term migrants for New Zealand.

In the past, immigration statistics have been the subject of much discussion due to the historically high numbers. While the current downward trend is not yet a problem it is clearly important for New Zealand to maintain positive net migration to avoid population stagnation and the impacts of our aging population.

NB: These statistics do not differentiate between people who were born as NZ citizens, or who acquired NZ citizenship by grant.